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הרצאה: פרופ׳ ניקולס סמבניס, אוניברסיטת ייל | פורום סופי דיוויס

הרצאה: פרופ׳ ניקולס סמבניס, אוניברסיטת ייל

תאריך: 
ב', 04/01/201612:30-14:00
מיקום: 
חדר 32 באגף המדיה, ספריית הר הצופים

AbstractThree interlocking policy dilemmas arise in societies emerging from ethno-sectarian war that complicate the peace-builders task. First, a “sectarian dilemma” arises as self-enforcing peace via power-sharing must rely on leaders who are likely to have narrow preferences. Peace-building must rely on them to create inclusive institutions, but if their power stems from ethno-sectarianism, why would they invest in public goods that benefit non-co-ethnics? Second, external actors can provide resources during peace transitions, but an “institutional dilemma” arises when foreign control of national institutions diminishes their legitimacy and crowds out local leaders who cannot develop reputations for competence under the occupier’s shadow. Third, if the institutional dilemma is overcome, nation-building can induce citizens to shift away from ethnic identification and push their leaders to invest in public goods. But a “sovereignty” dilemma arises when nation-building is attempted under alien rule. The more successful the nation-building program, the greater the pressure on local leaders to expel the occupier. If external assistance ends before state institutions are sufficiently developed to provide self-enforcing peace, ethnic conflict will recur and the population will identify ethnically, weakening leaders’ commitments to rebuild national institutions. We trace the interactions of these interlocking dilemmas in a dynamic model that considers the limits to third-party-led nation-building after ethno-sectarian war and use the model to explain the resurgence of sectarian war in Iraq.